Confidence in a college degree is falling across the political spectrum, and it's not just about politics or cost anymore — AI is now a driving reason families are asking whether college is worth it.

Why it matters: Education debt is fixed once borrowed. The income a degree generates is not. That gap is exactly why career outcomes — not just enrollment — are becoming the real measure of whether college pays off.

By the numbers:

• Just 38% of Americans say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education in 2026, down from 42% in 2025 and 57% in 2015, according to Gallup and the Lumina Foundation.

• Confidence dropped most sharply among Democrats (50%, down from 61%), while Republicans (23%) and independents (39%) held closer to last year's levels.

• 46% of Americans now believe AI will make college degrees less important over the next five years; just 20% think it'll make them more important.

• Separately, a survey of 2,000 U.S. college students found 69% worry AI will make it harder to find a job, and only 45% feel optimistic about the job market after graduation.

• 22% of students say they've already changed their major over job-market concerns; 34% say they're pursuing a degree specifically to try to stay ahead of AI-driven disruption.

State of play: The top reasons Americans cite for low confidence in higher ed: perceived political bias on campus (31%), cost (30%), and a sense that colleges aren't preparing students for the workforce (25%). That last concern is compounding as AI reshapes which skills employers actually want from entry-level hires.

Zoom in: Families are shifting how they evaluate a school — not just "does it offer my kid's major," but "can it show real employer connections and internship placement." Some students are hedging by adding practical coursework (one accounting major at UC Davis added a finance concentration after deciding AI could handle much of the traditional accounting workload), while others are choosing trade programs with clearer, faster paths to stable work.

What this means for you: If you or your family are weighing college costs against expected outcomes, the calculation isn't as simple as "degree vs. no degree" anymore — it's about which specific program, which employer relationships, and which skills a school can actually demonstrate results on. Since the debt is fixed but the income isn't, it's worth running the actual numbers — expected starting salary, loan payments, timeline to break even — before committing, the same way you'd model any other major purchase. Copiafy's goal tracker can help you map out a loan repayment plan against realistic income scenarios before you borrow.

Bottom line: The question families are asking isn't whether college still matters — it's whether a specific degree will actually pay for itself, and that answer now depends heavily on how well a school prepares students for an AI-altered job market.

Sources: Gallup: "Confidence in U.S. Higher Education Slips Back Slightly"; Talker Research / Superhuman: "College students fear AI 'job apocalypse,' but are using AI to fight back"; Axios: "College loses its monopoly on the American Dream"; Axios: "The big college major rethink"